Multi-Perspective Enemy Course of Action Maintenance

Estimation of the Enemy’s Course of Action (ECOA) is required for assessing enemy intent and mission impact, both of which are key functional components embodied in the Joint Directors of Laboratories (JDL) Level 3 (Threat Refinement) processing description. Most ECOA estimation approaches assume that the set of ECOA hypotheses are enumerated in advance and therefore reduce the problem of ECOA maintenance to a hypothesis test performed over time. However, when asymmetric threats are present, ECOA hypotheses cannot generally be enumerated in advanced and therefore need to be dynamically generated, decomposed, and evaluated in near real-time. Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Laboratories has developed a multi-perspective approach to ECOA maintenance that employs Threat Perspective Models for the generation, decomposition, and evaluation of ECOA hypotheses. Each Threat Perspective Model generates hypotheses based upon feasibility and utility, decomposes hypotheses into sub-tasks using a Hierarchical Task Network (HTN), and evaluates hypotheses based upon observations of ECOA sub-tasks. This approach is justified by a goal-directed task analyses performed on Army Intelligence Analysts, which indicate that human analysts maintain ECOA hypotheses by viewing the battlefield from multiple perspectives such as terrain, weather, armament, doctrine, etc. This multiperspective approach makes the ECOA maintenance problem more tractable and allows for seamless incorporation of new Threat Perspective Models. The multiperspective ECOA maintenance approach presented in this paper is being incorporated into Army Fusion R&D programs aimed at providing Level 3 Fusion at multiple echelons. 1. Motivation Military analysts expend an extraordinary amount of resources and manpower attempting to determine the intended actions of an adversary. Even with conventional adversaries, where tactics and capabilities are typically well known, analysts struggle to predict the actions that an adversary might take. As the battle space evolves and becomes occupied by creative, asymmetric threats whose tactics and capabilities are not well known, the military analyst is faced with a nearly impossible task.